Interviewer:
Pranam. Today is Rakhi Purnima. I am speaking from Shanti Sangha Shantikuunj at the Rajpur cremation ground. We have climate specialist Dr. Sujit Kar with us today. My question to Sujit Babu is: what can you tell us about the climate in the coming days?
Dr. Sujit Kar:
Well, as you may have heard on the TV and in the newspapers, a severe low-pressure area was prevailing over the North-West Bay of Bengal for the last three days. This low pressure was moving very rapidly toward the Bangladesh and Myanmar coasts. However, it was hindered by a powerful low-pressure area over Central India, specifically over Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
Dr. Sujit Kar:
This Central Indian system pulled the depression back, and as a result, the low pressure has returned to the Odisha coast. Within the next 12 hours, it will enter Odisha. Consequently, the chance of the heavy rainfall we expected over South Bengal has decreased significantly.
Dr. Sujit Kar:
However, a new, smaller low-pressure system has formed over the North Bay of Bengal, currently situated at the mouth of the Bhagirathi-Hooghly River. Once the previous system moves further into Odisha, this new system will draw a massive amount of moisture from the North Bay of Bengal into the mainland.
Dr. Sujit Kar:
As a result, in about 24 hours, heavy rainfall will begin in this region, accompanied by thunderstorms in several areas. The significant rainfall deficit we've seen in South Bengal will likely be largely covered by August 14th. You can expect sunny weather on August 15th (Independence Day), but the rain will resume after that. Not only will the deficit be met, but there may be excess rainfall, potentially creating flood-like situations in parts of South Bengal.
Dr. Sujit Kar:
Today is particularly critical for West Midnapore, Bankura, Jhargram, and Purulia—the areas bordering Odisha and West Bengal. They will experience very heavy rainfall for the next 12 hours. After that, the system will move inland, and more moisture will enter South Bengal starting tomorrow, leading to more rain.
Interviewer:
We have been hearing on the TV that a cyclone has formed and might strike.
Dr. Sujit Kar:
No, Guru, no cyclone has formed yet. However, there is a possibility. As we transition from August to September, the monsoon winds will begin to retreat. Currently, the sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal is about 4 degrees Celsius above normal. This is causing low-pressure systems to become very powerful.
Dr. Sujit Kar:
If the retreating monsoon interacts with the North-East trade winds, there is a chance of a very fierce cyclone forming in the Bay of Bengal. In fact, we expect multiple cyclones during September and October. While most will likely head toward Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, one or two might enter South Bengal.
Interviewer:
We've noticed that at night, it feels quite chilly. If we turn the fan off, it's hot, but if we leave it on, it feels very cold. Why is this happening?
Dr. Sujit Kar:
This is because the low pressure in the Bay of Bengal is drawing in winds from the North and North-West. Due to heavy rains in the mountains, areas above 5,000 meters have already started receiving snowfall.
Interviewer:
Snowfall as early as September 15th?
Dr. Sujit Kar:
Yes, it started early this year due to excess rain. The winds coming from the North and North-West are quite cold and dry. When you turn the fan on, this cold air mixes with the local humidity, making it feel much colder than usual.
Interviewer:
This is very harmful to the human body, especially for children and the elderly. The weather is not good at all. Anyway, you performed a Homa (fire ritual) today—you do them occasionally—and I thought I'd ask you about the weather so everyone can know. What about Durga Puja? It's only about a month and a half away. Will the weather be bad then?
Dr. Sujit Kar:
There is a very high probability of rain during Durga Puja. Durga Puja falls in October, and we often refer to "Black September and October." Since the rains were delayed this year, they are likely to persist through October, possibly until Kali Puja. Furthermore, winter will arrive very rapidly and will be much colder than usual.
Interviewer:
I see. I've shared your insights with the public. I requested you to speak because everyone should be informed.
Dr. Sujit Kar:
Every day, India is losing its climatic diversity. The variety we once had is gone. As time passes, climate change will become our primary cause of grief. Due to global warming and rising sea levels, it is expected that within the next 10 to 12 years, 35 to 40 million people in coastal areas will become "environmental refugees." We currently have no preparation to protect them; it's a helpless situation.
Interviewer:
Where would preparation come from? The government is in a state of flux and struggling with funds. There's no point discussing it; the government is effectively non-existent. Anyway, thank you. Pranam, Guru.
Dr. Sujit Kar:
Pranam.